Effect of Public Debt on Economic Growth in Nigeria (Project Guide)

EFFECT OF PUBLIC DEBT ON ECONOMIC GROWTH IN NIGERIA: A COMPLETE PROJECT GUIDE

Departments: Economics, Banking and Finance, Accounting, Public Administration, Development Studies, Business Administration

ABOUT THIS GUIDE

This is a detailed research guide and framework, not a finished project for submission. It gives you a ready-to-adapt Chapter One, a map for your literature review, a full time-series methodology plan (unit root tests, ARDL bounds testing and diagnostics), a data collection sheet, empty results tables, and guidance for writing your conclusions. You collect your own data and write Chapters Four and Five from your own results.

SECTION 1: TOPIC AND ALTERNATIVE TITLES

Main topic:
Effect of Public Debt on Economic Growth in Nigeria ([start year] to [end year])

Alternative titles:
1. External Debt, Debt Service and Economic Growth in Nigeria.
2. Domestic Debt and Private Sector Investment in Nigeria: Testing the Crowding-Out Hypothesis.
3. Debt Service Burden and Capital Expenditure in Nigeria.
4. Sustainability of Nigeria's Public Debt: An Analysis of Debt Ratios.
5. Effect of Ways and Means Advances on Inflation in Nigeria.
6. Public Debt and Unemployment in Nigeria.

SECTION 2: MODEL CHAPTER ONE

1.1 Background to the Study (model text, rewrite in your own words)

Governments borrow to finance budget deficits, infrastructure and development projects, especially when revenue is insufficient. Public debt includes domestic debt (borrowing from local banks, investors and the central bank, for example through Federal Government bonds and Treasury bills) and external debt (borrowing from multilateral institutions, bilateral lenders and international capital markets, for example through Eurobonds). Borrowing can support growth if it finances productive investment, but excessive debt can harm growth if debt service crowds out other spending, raises interest rates, or creates uncertainty.

Nigeria's debt history illustrates these issues. By the early 2000s, Nigeria's external debt had become very large relative to its economy, and in 2005 the Paris Club of creditors agreed to a debt relief deal under which Nigeria's debt to them was substantially reduced. Since then, total public debt has risen again, and a growing share of government revenue has been spent on debt service [cite figures from the Debt Management Office (DMO) and budget reports]. Concerns have also been raised about borrowing from the Central Bank of Nigeria through Ways and Means Advances, which were later securitised.

Economic theory and evidence suggest that the relationship between debt and growth may depend on the level of debt and on how borrowed funds are used. Krugman (1988) described the "debt overhang" problem, in which a large debt reduces incentives for investment. Reinhart and Rogoff (2010) suggested that growth tends to be lower at high debt levels, although their findings were challenged (Herndon, Ash and Pollin, 2014). This study therefore examines the effect of public debt on economic growth in Nigeria.

1.2 Statement of the Problem (model)

Nigeria's public debt and debt service costs have risen sharply in recent years, and the ratio of debt service to revenue has become a major concern [support this with DMO and budget data]. At the same time, economic growth has been slow and infrastructure gaps remain. It is not clear whether borrowing has contributed to growth or has become a burden on it, and whether domestic and external debt have different effects. This study addresses that problem.

1.3 Objectives of the Study

The main objective is to examine the effect of public debt on economic growth in Nigeria. The specific objectives are to:
1. examine the effect of external debt on economic growth;
2. examine the effect of domestic debt on economic growth;
3. examine the effect of debt service payments on economic growth.

WHAT THE FULL GUIDE CONTAINS

The complete guide continues with:
- research questions and null hypotheses matched to each objective;
- significance, scope, limitations and definitions of terms;
- a Chapter Two map: concepts to define, the theoretical framework, how to build the empirical review, and a model statement of the research gap;
- a full Chapter Three plan: design, population, a worked sample-size calculation, sampling technique, validity, reliability and the statistical test for each hypothesis;
- a ready-to-adapt draft questionnaire (or data collection instrument);
- Chapter Four table templates with guidance on interpreting and discussing results;
- a Chapter Five guide to the summary, conclusion and recommendations;
- a list of real starting references, plus a checklist of common supervisor corrections.

Please note: this is a research guide and framework to help you plan and write your own project. It does not contain invented data or results. You collect your own data and write Chapters Four and Five from your own findings.